Concerns about Bangladesh’s exports in the future have been raised by the continuous turmoil and curfew, as evidenced by data adjustments by Bangladesh Bank that showed a decline in shipments in nearly all the important sectors during the previous fiscal year.
The fact that Bangladesh desperately needs foreign money to support its declining foreign exchange reserves which as of 31st July, this year stood at just US $ 20.48 billion has made the problem worse.
The central bank found the export data mismatch in reports prepared by the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) and the National Board of Revenue (NBR) for the July-April fiscal 2023-24 period.
The true quantity of exports was US $ 33.67 billion, which was about US $ 14 billion less than the amount that was previously disclosed and represented a 6.8 per cent decline in exports year over year. Knitwear exports, which make up more than a third of the nation’s total export revenue, saw a 6.93 per cent decrease among the products.
In a similar vein, the export of woven clothing, which makes up a comparable share of all shipments, fell by 6.34 per cent. Except chemicals, plastic, and agricultural items, every sector experienced the same situation.
“The buyers are in uncertainty and anxious over the unrest and on whether the exporters will be able to deliver the products,” said Mohammad Hatem, executive president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association.
According to him, the garment industry lost US $ 800 million in direct revenue because exporters had to pay port demurrages and give discounts to make up for missed shipment deadlines and lead times.
Furthermore, he said, Bangladesh lost out on orders for exports worth at least US $ 3 billion over the course of the previous 12 days since such orders were not placed because of the disturbance.
According to Ashraf Ahmed, president of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry, exports in the fiscal year 2024–25 are off to a rough start because activities were suspended for many days in the first month.
The loss in export revenues over ten days is approximately 2.7 per cent, or US $ 1.3 billion, or Taka 16,200 crore, if exports are assumed to be US $ 50 billion over 365 days.
On top of that, buyers overseas lose confidence, which remains unquantifiable, he said, adding, “Risk discounts can climb higher, while borrowing costs will increase, creating pressure on prices.”
“Hopefully, the figure will be lower as we will be able to complete some exports with some delays and recover some of the lost production days by working harder later in the year,” he said.
