Climate adaptation must be treated as a core business strategy for Bangladesh’s garment industry rather than a peripheral sustainability initiative, according to a new study by Cornell University’s Global Labor Institute (GLI). The report warns that failure to adapt to climate risks could significantly erode export earnings and employment in the country’s largest industrial sector.
The study estimates that Bangladesh’s apparel exports could reach US $ 122.01 billion by 2030 if effective climate adaptation measures are implemented. Without such action, exports could fall to US $ 95.35 billion, representing a potential loss of more than 22%.
According to the report, the projected decline is driven primarily by reduced worker productivity caused by rising heat stress and recurrent flooding. These climate-related pressures directly affect factory output and disrupt supply chains. The employment impact is also severe, with the study suggesting that up to 250,000 potential garment jobs could be lost by 2030 in the absence of adaptation, threatening the sector’s position as the country’s largest industrial employer.
The findings highlight Bangladesh’s growing exposure to climate extremes. Over the past two decades, the average number of days in Dhaka with temperatures exceeding 35°C has increased by 56.1%. The analysis projects that days surpassing moderate heat stress thresholds could almost quadruple by 2050 compared with 2030 levels, with direct consequences for worker efficiency, machinery performance and operational continuity.
Among 21 major global apparel manufacturing hubs assessed, Bangladesh’s garment workforce was identified as the most climate-vulnerable. The report attributes this to limited social protection coverage and low levels of climate preparedness. Heat stress reduces physical capacity on factory floors, while frequent flooding damages raw materials and machinery, disrupts logistics and increases compliance risks for exporters.
The study outlines a detailed roadmap for adaptation, including mandatory standards for working hours, rest breaks and hydration to protect productivity. It also calls for investment in flood-resilient infrastructure and factory cooling systems to maintain output during extreme weather events. Longer-term recommendations include recognising heat stress and flooding as occupational health risks, providing paid leave during extreme weather and adjusting employment practices to reduce climate-related exposure.
Beyond factory operations, the report argues that climate adaptation is closely tied to social equity and economic stability. It warns that the long-term costs of inaction will far outweigh the upfront investment required to build resilience, particularly in a sector that generates the bulk of Bangladesh’s export earnings.
While Bangladesh has emerged as a global leader in factory greening, with the highest number of certified green garment factories worldwide, the report notes that climate adaptation presents a more complex challenge. As the country moves towards graduation from least developed country (LDC) status and faces the potential erosion of trade preferences, cost competitiveness alone will no longer be sufficient. Sustained growth, the study concludes, will depend on greater product diversification, higher value addition, technological advancement and rapid skills development, all underpinned by climate-resilient production systems.
