India’s cotton opening stocks for the 2026-27 crop year, beginning October, are estimated to rise 68% year on year to a record 93.59 lakh bales of 170 kg each, according to the Cotton Association of India (CAI). The sharp increase is primarily attributed to record cotton imports, which are expected to reach 62 lakh bales during the 2025-26 season.
CAI has raised its estimate for the closing stock of the current 2025-26 season to 93.59 lakh bales, up 38 lakh bales from the previous year. The association has also increased its cotton production estimate for the season by 2 lakh bales to 339 lakh bales, following upward revisions in pressing estimates for Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
The latest revision follows a 3-lakh-bale increase announced by CAI last month, taking the production estimate to 337 lakh bales at that time.
CAI Crop Committee Chairman Atul S Ganatra said the record inventory is largely the result of elevated imports over the past two years. India’s cotton imports, which traditionally ranged between 15 lakh and 20 lakh bales annually over the past two to three decades, rose to 41 lakh bales last year and are expected to reach 62 lakh bales this year.
By the end of July, around 54 lakh bales had already been imported, with another 8 lakh bales expected by September-end. Cotton imports are currently exempt from customs duty until October 31, supporting higher inflows of the fibre.
CAI has retained its domestic cotton consumption estimate at 348 lakh bales. Consumption stood at around 290 lakh bales by the end of July. Meanwhile, cotton exports for the season are estimated at 15 lakh bales, compared with 18 lakh bales in the previous season, with about 12.25 lakh bales estimated to have been exported by the end of July.
Cotton prices are currently firm, supported by global market trends, domestic demand and expectations of delayed new-crop arrivals due to late sowing. Prices of cotton sold by the Cotton Corporation of India increased by Rs 200 per candy of 356 kg on August 11.
While higher imports have improved raw material availability for textile manufacturers and provided some margin relief, the broader outlook for the textile value chain remains mixed. Weakness in downstream demand and export markets could limit the ability of fabric, knitting and other textile manufacturers to pass higher costs on to customers.
The sector also remains exposed to global cotton price movements and currency fluctuations. With the duty-free import window set to close in October, any change in import policy could have a direct impact on raw material costs and margins across the textile value chain.
The progress of the domestic cotton crop, monsoon conditions and the timing of new-crop arrivals will therefore remain key factors for the sector in the coming months
