India’s cotton production in the 2025-26 season, beginning in October, is expected to improve compared with last year, even though the cropped area has declined in major producing states such as Maharashtra and Gujarat, and heavy rains in August damaged standing crops in parts of the country.
In Gujarat, cotton was cultivated across 20.82 lakh hectares, a decline of 12% from 23.66 lakh hectares last year. Maharashtra also reported a fall, with the cropped area dropping to 38.44 lakh hectares from 40.81 lakh hectares. By contrast, cultivation in southern states increased. Telangana saw cotton acreage rise to 18.51 lakh hectares from 18.11 lakh hectares, while Karnataka’s rose to 8.08 lakh hectares from 7.79 lakh hectares. Andhra Pradesh recorded a marginal fall to 3.77 lakh hectares from 4.13 lakh hectares.
Trade associations across 10 states have projected India’s cotton crop for 2025-26 at between 325 lakh bales and 340 lakh bales (170 kg each), compared with 312 lakh bales in the current season. Karnataka’s output is forecast to grow by about 25% to 30 lakh bales from 24 lakh bales, while Andhra Pradesh’s production is expected to rise to 17 lakh bales from 12.5 lakh bales. Telangana’s crop is projected at 53-55 lakh bales, up 10% from 50 lakh bales.
Overall, southern India is likely to produce around 105 lakh bales, compared with 88 lakh bales last year, helping offset declines in other regions. Traders expect cotton arrivals during the Dasara festival to touch 30,000-35,000 bales per day, significantly higher than the current 10,000 bales.
While production prospects are improving, prices are under pressure. The government has scrapped the 11% import duty on cotton until the year-end to support the textiles sector, which is facing challenges due to US tariffs. This has driven imports to a record 41 lakh bales in 2024-25, compared with 15 lakh bales in the previous season. Imports during October-December alone are expected to exceed 20 lakh bales.
Raw kapas prices have softened, now hovering below the minimum support price (MSP) at Rs. 5,500–7,000 (US $ 62–80) per quintal, depending on quality and moisture levels, with recent rains in northern states impacting fibre quality.
The state-run Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has prepared for large-scale procurement, opening 550 centres to begin MSP operations on 1st October in North India. The corporation, which bought one crore bales last year, is holding around 12 lakh bales of the 2024-25 crop.
Globally, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected higher Indian production in 2025-26, with imports dipping to 35.8 lakh bales from 37.14 lakh bales, and exports rising to 16.64 lakh bales from 12.8 lakh bales.
The International Cotton Advisory Council (ICAC) reported that global production estimates have dropped from 25.9 million tonnes in August to 25.5 million tonnes, with reductions of 400,000 tonnes in the US, 100,000 tonnes in Pakistan and 50,000 tonnes in Sudan. Dry weather and water shortages have hit crops in the US and Pakistan, while pest infestations have damaged Sudan’s output.
Commenting on the same, Vishal Pacheriwal, Managing Director of ethnicwear manufacturer, Parnika India said, “From a manufacturer’s perspective, higher cotton yields can partly offset the drop in planted area by ensuring steady fibre availability and preventing sharp supply shortages. However, elevated farm prices and a higher MSP push up raw-material costs, squeezing margins for domestic mills. Manufacturers will likely pass some costs to buyers, step up imports, use blended fibres, or optimise inventories to manage cash flow. Persistently high prices can dampen demand for basic, price-sensitive garments, nudging producers toward premium or value-added lines. In short, output volumes may remain stable short term, but margins and product mix will be under pressure until prices ease.”
