Bangladesh’s export sector could see a decline of up to 14%, approximately US $ 1.25 billion, within the next year as a result of the recently introduced 20% reciprocal tariffs by the United States, according to a study by the Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID).
Of this projected loss, the apparel sector is expected to bear the brunt, with estimated losses of around US $ 1.08 billion. RAPID Chairman Mohammad Abdur Razzaque highlighted this during a presentation at a journalist workshop on Tuesday at CIRDAP in Dhaka, emphasizing the implications of US tariff policies and Bangladesh’s graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status.
Razzaque pointed out that Bangladesh’s export setbacks are comparatively smaller than those faced by other nations. “US imports of apparel are anticipated to decline by US $ 10 billion, which will make it challenging to achieve export growth,” he stated.
He further noted that the impact of additional tariffs imposed during the Trump administration is affecting multiple countries’ exports to the US. China could see a 58% decrease, India 48%, Vietnam 28%, and Indonesia 27%, Razzaque noted.
The situation for Bangladesh could worsen if India successfully negotiates a trade agreement that reduces its reciprocal tariffs by 20%. Under such circumstances, Razzaque warned, Bangladesh’s export decline could deepen to approximately 17.46%, while India’s exports might only decrease by about 18.33%.
Bangladesh remains the US’s top single-source supplier of garments, with over 90% of its exports to America centered on apparel. The country ships more than US $ 8 billion worth of goods annually to the US and imports about US $ 2 billion, resulting in a substantial trade deficit of US $ 6 billion. Globally, Bangladesh ranks as the third-largest garment exporter to the US, holding a 9.3% share of the US $ 81 billion US apparel import market, behind China and Vietnam.
Razzaque also highlighted that intensified global competition, especially in key markets such as the European Union, could further suppress prices and limit export opportunities. The long-term outlook will depend on factors like US inflation trends, potential policy reversals, shifts in global sourcing strategies, and Bangladesh’s capacity to adapt to evolving trade conditions.
While acknowledging that the current tariff structure could have been more severe, Razzaque cautioned against complacency. “Strategic policy measures, improvements in efficiency, and diversification of export markets will be vital for Bangladesh’s trade resilience,” he emphasized.
Meanwhile, a US trade delegation visiting Dhaka on Monday urged the Bangladeshi government to expedite reforms in labor laws and work toward narrowing the trade deficit to reduce retaliatory tariffs on Bangladeshi exports to the US.
Led by Brendan Lynch, assistant US trade representative for South and Central Asia, the three-member team met with Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) officials at the US ambassador’s residence in Dhaka on Tuesday.
Representatives from the local media community, including Doulot Akter Mala of the Economic Reporters Forum and RAPID’s Executive Director Mohammed Abu Eusuf, also participated in the discussions, emphasising the importance of sustained cooperation to safeguard Bangladesh’s garment export industry amid changing global trade dynamics.
