The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has forecasted that Bangladesh’s apparel exports could surpass US $ 50 billion by 2026, according to a recent report titled ‘Roadmap for Investment Policy Reforms and Sustainable Development in Bangladesh.’ This projection, which cites data from the International Finance Corporation (IFC), anticipates apparel exports reaching approximately US $ 51 billion by the specified year.
Despite this optimistic outlook, analysts express skepticism about reaching the export target, citing the impact of tariffs imposed by the United States globally. Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) reported that the country’s apparel exports amounted to US $ 27 billion in 2020, rose to US $ 36 billion in 2021, and further increased to US $ 46 billion in 2022. However, the export trend has declined in the subsequent two years.
Concerns are mounting regarding the detrimental effects of US tariffs on the global economy and particularly on Bangladesh, which relies heavily on the US market for its apparel exports. Economists believe that achieving the US $ 50 billion milestone will be a significant challenge under the current circumstances.
Dr. Fahmida Khatun, Executive Director of the Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD), commented, “The situation before and after the US tariffs is completely different. I am not sure if the current reality has been adequately considered in the ADB projection. If these tariffs remain in effect, it will be extremely difficult to surpass the US $ 50 billion export earnings milestone.”
She pointed out that the US tariffs could weaken global economies, leading to decreased growth and reduced purchasing power. Furthermore, finding alternative markets could be difficult, as demand in new markets may also be adversely affected by tariffs. Dr. Khatun emphasised that without the tariff issue, achieving the US $ 50 billion target would not have seemed insurmountable.
In contrast, the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) reported that Bangladesh’s apparel exports reached US $ 34 billion in the first nine months of the current fiscal year, up from US $ 27 billion during the same period last year, marking an 11 per cent increase. Stakeholders in the sector are optimistic that if this trend continues, significant growth in apparel exports could be achieved by the end of the fiscal year.
Additionally, the National Export Policy for 2024-27, which was approved last year, projects that Bangladesh’s total export earnings could reach US $ 110 billion by the end of the 2026-27 fiscal year. Despite notable successes in apparel exports thus far, the overall export volume remains a concern. However, experts believe there is potential for further growth in the sector given the current capacity.
