The long-running expansion of the sneaker market is being questioned, following a detailed analysis by Bank of America analysts led by Thierry Cota. In a 61-page report, the analysts argued that the sporting goods sector had experienced a two-decade “upcycle” that lifted sneakers from less than a quarter of global footwear sales to at least half, a shift that peaked during the Covid-19 pandemic as remote working accelerated demand for casual wear.
The analysts said that with this structural shift largely complete, future revenue growth prospects for sports footwear brands were now significantly reduced. They accompanied the assessment with a rare double downgrade of Adidas, removing their buy rating and labelling the stock among the least attractive in the sector.
The conclusions have also drawn scepticism from industry observers. Matt Powell, a long-time footwear analyst and adviser at consulting firm Spurwink River, publicly rejected the findings, saying there was no evidence that the casual footwear trend had peaked.
Data from market researchers also point to continued resilience in the category. Beth Goldstein, an analyst at Circana in New York, said sneakers now account for about 60% of footwear sales in the United States. She said sports shoes had gained widespread acceptance as part of a broader societal focus on comfort, health and wellness, priorities that were unlikely to fade. According to her, the US sneaker category grew 4% last year through November, while fashion footwear sales declined by 3%. She added that casualisation was no longer a trend but a core consumer preference.
Despite this, sneaker makers have faced mounting challenges since the pandemic. Several brands have struggled to keep pace with rapidly changing consumer tastes, while demand has cooled in key markets such as China. The sector has also faced uncertainty linked to potential US tariffs. Over the past year, Adidas shares have fallen by nearly one-third, while On Holding’s stock is down more than 10%, despite reporting strong revenue growth.
Poonam Goyal, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said the casualisation trend had not ended but had stabilised, with consumer wardrobes becoming more balanced. She said the category had moved beyond the pandemic-driven demand surge and was now operating in a more normalised environment.
There are also signs that sneakers are encroaching further into traditionally formal categories. In 2025, the most traded loafer on online resale platform StockX was the New Balance 1906L, a hybrid design combining elements of a boat shoe and a running trainer. High-profile figures and fashion influencers are increasingly seen wearing premium trainers, often developed through collaborations with luxury brands such as Gucci and Moncler.
Bank of America’s analysts did not suggest that consumers would abandon sneakers altogether. Instead, they said sporting goods sales had been growing at a slower-than-average pace since mid-2023 compared with the previous two decades. They argued that, unlike in past cycles, there was little evidence to suggest a strong rebound ahead, citing data from credit card spending, subdued sales among Asian footwear and apparel suppliers, and cautious outlooks from industry executives for 2026.
