A National Cotton Council (NCC) survey projects a 14.5 per cent decrease in US cotton acreage for 2025, down to 9.6 million acres from 2024. This reduction reflects challenging economic conditions for US cotton growers, who are facing their third consecutive year of unfavourable market returns and insufficient agricultural support, according to Dr. Jody Campiche, NCC’s vice president of Economics & Policy Analysis.
The NCC’s 2025 economic outlook identifies several factors influencing the US cotton sector. Global economic activity, while expected to modestly expand, is projected to grow at a rate below historical averages. The US cotton industry faced numerous challenges in 2024, including low prices, high production costs, and reduced demand. Growers now face difficult planting decisions for 2025 due to market prices that do not cover production costs.
Global cotton demand is expected to increase in 2025, but potential trade policy shifts create significant uncertainty in the international market. During the survey period, all commodity prices declined compared to early 2024 futures prices, with cotton experiencing the steepest drop. This resulted in less favourable price ratios for cotton compared to other crops like corn and soybeans.
The NCC estimates a 7.8 million acre harvested area in the Cotton Belt for 2025, with an abandonment rate of 18.4 per cent. Based on a five-year average yield per state, the projected harvest is 13.9 million bales, comprising 13.5 million upland bales and 392,000 extra-long staple (ELS) bales.
Domestic consumption by US mills is forecast at 1.73 million bales for the 2025/26 marketing year, slightly up from 1.70 million bales in the previous period. The US textile sector continues to struggle with weakened Western Hemisphere trade flows and increased competition from imported textiles under de minimis provisions.
Globally, cotton consumption is predicted to rise 1.7 per cent to 117.9 million bales in the 2025/26 marketing year. This increased global demand, combined with a larger US supply, suggests stronger US exports compared to the prior year. However, US ending stocks are still projected to reach 5.2 million bales.
While the US is projected to have a slightly larger share of world exports in the coming marketing year, Brazil is expected to remain the top exporter for the third consecutive year. The US cotton sector, heavily reliant on exports of raw fibre, cotton yarns, and fabrics, is vulnerable to any changes in tariffs, which could significantly alter trade patterns.
